Familial colorectal cancer risk by subsite of primary cancer: a population-based study in Utah.

BACKGROUND: Familial occurrence is common in colorectal cancer (CRC), but whether this increased familial risk differs by colonic subsite of the index patients CRC is not well understood. AIM: To quantify the risk of CRC in first-degree (FDR), second-degree (SDR) and first cousin (FC) relatives of individuals with CRC, stratified by subsite in the colorectum and age at diagnosis. METHODS: Colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1980 and 2010 were identified from the Utah Cancer Registry and linked to pedigrees from the Utah Population Database. Age and gender-matched CRC-free controls were selected to form the comparison group for determining CRC risk in relatives using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the 18,208 index patients diagnosed with CRC, 6584 (36.2%) were located in the proximal colon, 5986 (32.9%) in the distal colon and 5638 (31%) in the rectum. The elevated risk of CRC in relatives was similar in analysis stratified for CRC colorectal subsites in the index cases. FDR had similarly elevated risk of all site CRC, whether the index patient had cancer in the proximal colon [hazards ratio (HR): 1.85; 95% CI: 1.70-2.02], distal colon (HR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.73-2.08) or rectum (HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.66-2.02) compared to relatives of controls. This risk was consistently greater for FDR when cases developed CRC below the age of 60 years. CONCLUSIONS: Relatives of CRC patients have a similarly elevated risk of CRC regardless of colonic tumour subsite in the index patient, and it is greatest for relatives of younger age index cases.

The fall in incidence of prostate carcinoma. On the down side of a prostate specific antigen induced peak in incidence--data from the Utah Cancer Registry.

BACKGROUND: In the 1980s, prostate specific antigen (PSA) came into wide use as a prostate carcinoma screening and detection method in the United States. Following the introduction of PSA, the age-adjusted incidence of prostate carcinoma reported by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in the United States rose rapidly (from 84.4/100,000 in 1984 to 163/100,000 in 1991). When an increase in incidence is observed following the introduction of a screening method, a subsequent decrease in incidence may be expected as prevalent cases are removed from the population (a cull effect). Incidence rates may also fall due to factors such as decreased intensity of screening. The Utah Cancer Registry data were examined for a decrease in prostate cancer incidence. METHODS: We tracked age-adjusted prostate carcinoma incidence trends from the population-based Utah Cancer Registry and compared them with rates from the SEER national registry. RESULTS: A rapid and highly correlated rise in prostate carcinoma incidence has been observed in both SEER and Utah incidence rates between 1988 and 1991, the last year for which SEER data are available. In 1992, Utah incidence rates peaked at 236.2 per 100,000. In 1993 and 1994, Utah incidence rates fell to 195.0, and an estimated 164.0 per 100,000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based data from the Utah Cancer Registry indicates that the incidence of prostate carcinoma is decreasing rapidly after a similarly rapid increase.

Reproductive factors and colon cancer: the influences of age, tumor site, and family history on risk (Utah, United States).

The Utah (United States) Population Database was used to evaluate the associations between reproductive factors and colon cancer risk and the impact that family history, age at diagnosis, and tumor site have on these associations. From the cohort of (White) women in the database, all first-primary cases of colon cancer (n = 819) and controls who had complete fertility information (n = 3,202) were examined. The majority of tumors (68.6 percent) among women diagnosed at age 64 years or less were in the distal segment of the colon, while among women 65 or older, the majority of tumors (55.7 percent) were proximal. Women diagnosed before age 65 had a lower risk of colon cancer with increasing numbers of liveborn children (odds ratio [OR] = 0.6, 95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 0.3-0.9 for women with five or more children compared with women with one or two children). A long interval between first and second births (first birth-interval) was associated with increased risk of tumors in the distal segment of the colon (OR = 1.4, CI = 1.0-2.0) and among women diagnosed before age 65 (OR = 1.6, CI = 1.0-2.5); a longer, average birth-interval was associated with increased risk of proximal tumors (OR = 1.5, CI = 1.1-2.1).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Maternal pattern of reproduction and risk of breast cancer in daughters: results from the Utah Population Database.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have found that daughters born to older mothers have an elevated risk of breast cancer, and an endocrine hypothesis, among others, has been developed to explain these findings. Three recent studies have failed to find a consistent maternal age effect, indicating a need for further exploration of this issue. PURPOSE: We used Utah breast cancer records linked to genealogical records to investigate maternal and paternal age and other maternal reproductive factors in relationship to the daughter's risk of breast cancer. METHODS: The study group consisted of 2414 breast cancer case patients and 9138 individually matched control subjects. Breast cancer diagnoses were ascertained through the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. The case patients and control subjects were born between 1875 and the end of 1947, and the mean age at diagnosis of the case patients was 65.9 years. RESULTS: No consistent effect for maternal or paternal age was found, except possibly among women who were firstborn children (odds ratio [OR] = 1.42 for a 10-year differential in maternal age; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.00-2.00). Further examination of the data indicated that mothers of case patients experienced long intervals between marriage and their first birth but not between subsequent births, and they went on to have fewer children. For each year of delay between the mother's marriage and first birth, the odds of breast cancer in the daughter increased 1.05-fold (95% CI = 1.01-1.10). CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of a consistent maternal age effect with regard to breast cancer risk in the daughter, but we did find evidence that the mothers of women who go on to get breast cancer have a reproductive pattern that could suggest some form of underlying infertility. IMPLICATIONS: These findings widen the epidemiologic support for the fetal antigen hypothesis, which is an immunogenetic explanation for the relationships between reproductive factors and breast cancer risk. That hypothesis provides strategies for the identification of breast cancer genes and the eventual development of a breast cancer vaccine.

Gender of the first offspring, age at diagnosis, and survival with breast cancer (Utah, United States).

We examined the relationship between the survival of women with breast cancer and the gender of their first children using a genealogy-based survival analysis. The study group consisted of 2,155 parous women diagnosed in Utah (United States) with first primary breast cancers (excluding in situ tumors). We calculated hazard rate ratios (HRR) which were adjusted for stage, median survival times, and proportions surviving for three-, five-, and 10-year intervals stratified by age at diagnosis. Median survival among women diagnosed under the age of 45 was 171 months if the first child was female, but only 66 months if the first child was male (HRR = 1.66, 95 percent confidence interval = 1.07-2.57, for male children). For women diagnosed at age 45 or older, all survival times were similar, although women whose first child was male had slightly longer median survival time. These findings suggest that the gender of the first child has a strong influence on survival among women diagnosed under 45 years of age, but not among those diagnosed later in life. Gender of the first offspring may be a useful clinical indicator of prognosis and survival and may provide insights into etiologic and promotional factors for breast cancer.

A specification of marital fertility by parents' age, age at marriage and marital duration.

The positive association between wife's age at marriage and fertility experienced at the older reproductive ages, cited in recent natural fertility literature, is explored using Mormon birth cohorts from 1840 to 1879. When this relationship is specified by husband's age at marriage and marriage duration, the results indicate that older-aged husbands depress marital fertility only at higher marriage durations. The general decomposition of age-specific fertility utilizing both mother's and father's age is also considered. The results show that mother's aging is the most important factor, while father's aging has a moderately negative effect under a natural fertility regime.

A macrosimulation approach to the investigation of natural fertility.

This paper is part of a long-term investigation known as the Mormon Historical Demography Project. It examines the capability of a simulation model, originally proposed by John Bongaarts (1976), to fit the natural fertility pattern which characterized the mid-nineteenth century Mormon population. Application of this model permits estimates to be made of the historical timing and age-incidence of fertility limitation. A sensitivity analysis of the model's parameters demonstrates that simple changes in the model's proximate determinants of fertility, excluding contraceptive practices, would be insufficient to account for later transition effects. Thus the results successfully capture the dynamics underlying the Mormon natural fertility pattern as well as offer a framework for future modeling of the transition away from natural fertility.